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The Federal Reserve’s official cancellation of the Special Supervision Program for banks’ crypto business marks a significant milestone in the integration of cryptocurrency within mainstream financial regulation. By folding the oversight of crypto activities back into the standard supervisory process, the Fed signals increased confidence and understanding of these emerging technologies and their associated risks. This move not only provides banks greater operational flexibility but also aligns with broader efforts to harmonize regulatory frameworks as digital assets become more normalized. For those interested in understanding the broader dimensions of financial innovations and regulatory shifts, exploring The MeasureX Dimensions can offer valuable insights into how such changes impact the evolving landscape.

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#Citi #Stablecoin #BankToken Over the past few years, stablecoins have played an almost “leading role” in crypto: whether matching orders on exchanges or powering collateralized lending in DeFi, stablecoins are the core infrastructure. Citi’s newly released report, “Stablecoins 2030,” stretches the outlook much further: by 2030, outstanding stablecoin supply could surpass $1.9 trillion in its base case — and, in an optimistic scenario, race toward $4 trillion. What does that mean in practice? Today’s stablecoin market is only about $150 billion. A seven-year, 20–30x expansion deserves a careful unpacking of the logic behind it. A Detailed Reading of Citi’s Latest Report: “Stablecoins 2030” 1. Market Size: From “Exchange Settlement Tool” to “Global Payment Layer” Citi offers two projections in the report: Base case: stablecoin supply reaches $1.9 trillion by 2030. Optimistic case: up to $4 trillion. If you then layer in velocity — how many times a single stablecoin unit can “turn over” in a year — Citi assumes future stablecoin velocity could reach 50x (close to traditional payment systems). Under that assumption: In the base case, stablecoins could support $100 trillion in annual transaction volume. In the optimistic case, $200 trillion per year. This is no longer about “stablecoins within a small circle,” but points directly to the global payment layer, cross-border settlement, and international trade. 2. Growth Drivers: Three Engines at Work Citi believes future stablecoin growth won’t be driven by a single force, but by three engines operating simultaneously, together forming a massive demand base. These three engines are the crypto-native ecosystem, e-commerce and digital-native enterprises, and offshore/international dollar demand. 1）Crypto-native ecosystem: stablecoins’ “home market” If you break down the history of stablecoins, they were almost tailor-made for crypto. Early on, Bitcoin’s price volatility was severe, and users lacked a tool “anchored to value” for pricing assets. Stablecoins emerged to become the trading counterparty, the hedging instrument, and the on-chain settlement currency. In today’s DeFi world, stablecoins are even more important: In lending markets, stablecoins are both collateral and borrowable assets. Users pledge ETH or BTC to borrow USDT/USDC for working capital. In derivatives, nearly all contract margins and settlements are stablecoin-denominated. In NFT and GameFi, stablecoins are not only the secondary-market settlement currency, but often the “exchange bridge” between in-game economies and the real world. In other words, even if stablecoins never entered traditional payments, the natural growth of the crypto-native ecosystem alone could expand them to the trillion-dollar scale. Citi’s report emphasizes that this demand is a “base layer” — solid and persistent. More critically, stablecoin usage exhibits a flywheel effect within crypto: The more people use stablecoins, the more DeFi protocols support them; The more protocols and use cases there are, the higher the demand and the faster the velocity. This positive feedback loop underpins stablecoins’ sustained growth over the next decade. 2) E-commerce and digital-native enterprises: the “expansion market” Citi sees the second driver coming from e-commerce, gaming, and social platforms. This is closer to everyday users and might even be the catalyst for true stablecoin breakout. Why? Because stablecoins are naturally suited for internet payments: Borderless: cross-border payments don’t need bank intermediaries — no 3–5 day settlement cycles. 24/7: they operate around the clock; weekends don’t pause transfers. Low cost: compared with expensive SWIFT cross-border remittances, stablecoin transfers are near zero cost. Imagine a cross-border e-commerce platform — say Shopee in Southeast Asia or Noon in the Middle East — embedding stablecoins into its payment stack. It could bypass complex FX controls and bank networks, directly realizing a “local currency ⇋ stablecoin ⇋ USD asset” loop. That’s a huge win for merchants and users alike. The same logic applies to gaming and social apps: Gaming economies need a “hard currency” that’s redeemable; stablecoins beat any virtual voucher on real-world value. Social apps can enable tipping and paid content via stablecoins, connecting directly with global users. More importantly, stablecoins could become a “platform settlement currency,” much like Alipay or PayPal. Once that kind of scaled application appears, stablecoins will leap from “a crypto-only currency” to a global internet payment tool. 3) Offshore/international dollar demand: the “hidden market” Finally — and this is something Citi particularly stresses — stablecoins are becoming the easiest way to access “digital dollars” globally. In many emerging markets, opening a USD account isn’t easy. Local banking is inefficient and FX controls are strict. For residents in such countries, holding USD and moving assets is often hard. Stablecoins provide a direct solution: Open a wallet address — no KYC required — and you can hold stablecoins. Stablecoins are transferable anytime and largely outside local capital controls. Liquidity is ample; conversion back to local currency is fast. This is especially crucial in high-inflation countries. In Argentina, Venezuela, Nigeria, and elsewhere, many people convert their salaries into stablecoins as soon as they’re paid, to avoid domestic currency depreciation. Here, stablecoins aren’t an investment — they are a lifeline for wealth preservation. This is what people call digital dollarization. As stablecoins spread globally, the trend may become more pronounced. It will not only meet individual needs but could also influence national FX structures. Taken together, these three forces form an inside-out expansion path: The crypto-native ecosystem is the core, the soil in which stablecoins first took root. E-commerce and digital enterprises are the expansion layer, bringing stablecoins into mainstream internet applications. Offshore dollar demand is the hidden market, giving stablecoins “must-have users” in emerging nations. Stack these three and you get Citi’s 2030 vision of $1.9–4 trillion in stablecoins. 3. A Powerful Rival: The Rise of Bank Tokens Stablecoins won’t be alone. A key point in Citi’s report is that bank tokens (tokenized deposits) may overtake stablecoins in transaction volume by 2030. Stablecoins’ edge: open, flexible, ideal for individuals and SMEs — anyone can use them. Bank tokens’ edge: backed by bank credit and easier to embed in enterprise finance and at-scale supply-chain payments. Citi projects that bank tokens’ annual transaction volume could reach $100–140 trillion by 2030 — higher than stablecoins. In other words, stablecoins will likely power the “internet-native, decentralized” economy, while bank tokens will handle “institutional, large-ticket” flows. The future may look like this: Stablecoins = digital cash, better for individuals and decentralized ecosystems. Bank tokens = digital deposits, better for enterprises and institutions. The two are not “zero-sum,” but “parallel prosperity.” 4. Regulation and Institutions: Catalysts for Mainstreaming Whether stablecoins can reach $4 trillion hinges on regulation and openness of payment networks. United States: moving forward with the GENIUS Act, and the SEC has launched the “Project Crypto” regulatory initiative. Europe: MiCAR (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) has gone live. Asia/Middle East: Hong Kong and the UAE are issuing stablecoin licenses to encourage compliant development. Perhaps most importantly, Visa and Mastercard have begun piloting stablecoin settlement on their networks. Once the payment giants truly open the pipes, stablecoin use cases could expand by orders of magnitude overnight. The Report’s Core Logic: Stablecoins Are About Fusion, Not Disruption Citi’s conclusion is clear: stablecoins won’t replace the dollar or disintermediate banks. Instead, together with bank tokens and CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) they will co-build a new digital-currency stack. For everyday users, stablecoins are “digital dollars you can use anytime. For enterprises, bank tokens may be more attractive, as they plug naturally into compliance, privacy, and existing finance systems. For regulators, a clear framework can move stablecoins from a “gray zone” to a compliant asset. In the end, the financial world of 2030 will likely be a three-pillar landscape: stablecoins + bank tokens + CBDC. Citi’s Outlook Is “Cautiously Optimistic” It recognizes that stablecoins will expand, while also underscoring the competitiveness of bank tokens. The trend suggests that the value of stablecoins is not to “replace the dollar,” but to supplement the dollar system. Put another way, the greatest significance of stablecoins isn’t to become a new currency, but to become the “lubricant” of global finance — appearing in cross-border payments, crypto finance, and e-commerce transactions. By 2030, whether you consider yourself a crypto user or not, you may well have used a stablecoin without realizing it. Conclusion Citi’s report effectively legitimizes stablecoins in the eyes of TradFi: they aren’t a fleeting speculative fad, but a class of infrastructure with a real shot at reaching the trillion-dollar level. The future of stablecoins is fusion, not replacement — not “disrupting the dollar,” but making the dollar more digital and more global.

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