Jump to content

SuperEx_Media

VERIFIED COMPANY ✔️
  • Posts

    30
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by SuperEx_Media

  1. #Fed #Crypto In previous articles, we mentioned that U.S. financial regulators have always had complicated feelings toward the crypto industry: they worry about risks, but also fear falling behind, and in the end gradually compromise with the development of the crypto sector. This emotional attitude has been reflected in U.S. financial regulatory policy. Over the past few years, American financial regulation has repeatedly swung between relaxation and strict control, then gradually loosened. Since 2024, major institutions in the U.S. have gradually begun to “accept” the crypto industry. Recently, the Federal Reserve officially announced the cancellation of the “Novel Activities Supervision Program,” reintegrating the supervision of banks’ crypto and fintech-related businesses back into the standard regulatory process. This news has undoubtedly stirred up no small wave in the crypto community. On the surface, this is just an adjustment to the regulatory framework. But when interpreted in the broader environment, it reveals several important signals: first, a clear softening of regulators’ attitude; second, an easing of tensions between crypto firms and banks; third, a repositioning of the U.S. financial system regarding crypto. Today, let’s analyze from several angles: What does this step by the Federal Reserve mean? What opportunities and challenges will it bring to the crypto market? And where might it lead in the future? Review: The Past and Present of the Fed’s “Special Supervision Program” To understand this change, we first need to look back at the background of this regulatory program. In 2023, the U.S. banking crisis erupted: Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank all collapsed in succession — and these just happened to be banks closely connected with the crypto industry. At that time, suspicion toward the crypto sector within the financial system reached its peak. In order to prevent “innovation risks” from triggering systemic problems, the Federal Reserve urgently set up the so-called “Novel Activities Supervision Program,” aimed at applying extra scrutiny to banks engaged in crypto, blockchain, and fintech businesses. To put it bluntly, this program functioned more like a “firewall.” It did not directly prohibit banks from participating in crypto-related business, but it dramatically raised compliance costs. For many banks considering entering crypto, simply dealing with approvals and compliance discussions consumed massive resources — some even chose to give up altogether. Thus, this became one of the most common complaints from crypto firms: U.S. regulators did not outright ban, but “persuaded banks to quit” through cumbersome processes. The Logic and Significance Behind the Fed’s Sudden Cancellation: Banks No Longer “Fear Crypto” Now, the Fed has suddenly announced the cancellation of this program, returning crypto supervision to the standard process. Behind this lie at least three layers of logic: 1. A deeper understanding of crypto business risks. In the past, regulators considered crypto a “black box”: they did not understand how risks transmitted, nor the industry’s logic, so they could only apply “special treatment.” But after more than a year of research and observation, the Fed gradually realized that crypto businesses are not a monstrous flood — their risks can be managed using conventional regulatory tools. 2. A political shift in the U.S. regulatory environment. Since Trump took office, the policy direction has clearly changed. He has repeatedly released pro-crypto signals, emphasizing that the U.S. should become a “crypto innovation center.” Against this backdrop, the Fed’s move is undoubtedly aligned with broader policy, a kind of policy echo. 3. The practical needs of the financial system and banks. As the crypto industry continues to grow, if traditional banks are kept permanently outside, they will lose market opportunities. Many banks can find new profit growth points in custody, payment settlement, and cross-border services through crypto businesses. The Fed’s “loosening” is, in a sense, giving banks breathing room. For the banking sector, these changes are very direct. Previously, many U.S. banks kept their distance from crypto clients, fearing that involvement would make them a key target of regulatory scrutiny. But now, with the special supervision program gone, banks can handle crypto-related business under conventional risk management processes. In other words, as long as basic requirements like AML (anti-money laundering), KYC (know your customer), and consumer protection are met, banks can fully decide for themselves whether to offer services. This means that in the future, more banks will reconsider providing accounts, payments, and custody services to crypto firms. For the crypto industry, this is a long-awaited positive, because “opening a bank account” has been one of their biggest pain points in recent years. The Significance for the Crypto Industry: A Clearer Path to Compliance For the crypto sector, this does not mean regulation is completely lifted, but it does mean the compliance path is clearer. In the past, firms often complained about policy ambiguity: Can we do this? What approvals are required? When might we be shut down? This uncertainty forced many projects to take detours, or even move headquarters to Europe or Asia. Particularly in the U.S., despite having the world’s largest pool of capital and users, regulatory vagueness was always a headache — you might open a bank account one day, only to be told by the compliance department the next day that it’s “frozen.” Such cases have been all too common in the crypto industry. Now things are different. With the Fed, OCC, and FDIC all expressing a unified stance, banks can decide on crypto business within the existing regulatory framework. This means crypto firms can cooperate more openly and directly with banks, lowering compliance costs and reducing uncertainty. For example, previously, a crypto company seeking custody services had to repeatedly explain its business logic, prove compliance ability, and even wait for implicit “permission” from regulators. Now, banks can make the decision themselves, based on their own risk control systems. This directly improves efficiency and reduces anxiety for firms operating in the “policy gray zone.” From a long-term perspective, this certainty will bring two clear changes: 1. Capital inflows will accelerate. Institutional and traditional investors have been cautious about crypto largely because of fears of sudden regulatory shifts leading to stranded assets or exposed legal risks. The regulators’ “unified tone” now provides the market with a signal: there is a path to compliance, and as long as you follow the framework, you won’t suddenly “step on a landmine.” For traditional funds, hedge funds, and even pension funds, this is a huge positive. 2. Business models in the industry will be healthier. In recent years, many crypto projects operated in gray areas to avoid regulation, or focused on overseas markets, which limited their growth. With clearer compliance environments, projects can put more energy into product innovation and user experience, instead of “how to bypass compliance.” This not only improves overall market transparency, but also gives users a stronger sense of security. After all, retail investors’ greatest fear is project fraud or frozen funds — these risks will decrease as compliance improves. What’s more notable is that this compliance shift will not only affect the U.S. but could trigger global policy linkage. The U.S. has always been at the core of the global financial system; if even U.S. regulators begin “drawing boundaries” for crypto, major financial centers in Europe and Asia are likely to follow suit, issuing clearer policy frameworks. This would create a chain reaction: compliance becomes the “new standard” for the industry, rather than a “choice for a few projects.” From this perspective, this is not just a U.S. market positive, but a sign that the global crypto industry is maturing. In short, the era of policy ambiguity is fading. Compliance clarity will bring the crypto industry into a phase of “equal dialogue with traditional finance.” For project teams, this means fewer worries; for institutional investors, this means greater certainty; and for the whole industry, this marks the turning point from wild growth to institutionalization and scaling. Market Opportunities: Capital, Institutions, and New Business 1. Easier institutional capital inflows. A core precondition for institutional investors entering the crypto market is reliable banking and custody services. As banks open up, crypto funds, family offices, and even pension funds will be more confident in allocating digital assets. 2. Smoother payment and settlement services. Banks re-engaging in crypto payments and cross-border transfers will make digital asset use in everyday payments and settlement more widespread. For stablecoins, this is undoubtedly a massive positive. 3. New financial products may accelerate. Bank-crypto partnerships may expand beyond accounts and payments into derivatives, loans, and collateral products. This would push crypto financialization to a new level. The Tug-of-War Between Regulation and Innovation Overall, the Fed’s cancellation of the special supervision program is a form of “compromise with the market” between regulation and innovation. It acknowledges the importance of crypto business, while attempting to bring its risks under conventional frameworks. In the coming years, three trends are worth close attention: Cooperation between banks and crypto firms will increase rapidly, especially in custody, payments, and stablecoins. Compliance will accelerate as the main theme, the era of wild growth will fade, and the survivors will be those willing to embrace regulation. Policy swings will still exist, and the industry must remain flexible, avoiding overreliance on a single market. Conclusion The Federal Reserve’s cancellation of the “crypto special supervision program” is both a reassessment of the crypto industry by the U.S. financial system and a new milestone for the entire industry’s development. For banks, it is a chance to re-enter the crypto track; for crypto firms, it is a turning point in reducing compliance uncertainty; for the market, it is a signal of further institutional inflows. But we cannot be overly optimistic. Regulation will never fully let go, and risk events could always alter policy trajectories. What is certain is that the relationship between crypto and traditional finance will only grow closer. And in the future, the competition will not just be about technology and business models — but also about mastering and adapting to the regulatory environment.
  2. #Bessent #Gold #Bitcoin On August 14, a few seemingly off-the-cuff remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent sent the global crypto market on an emotional roller coaster within just a few hours. First, he made it clear that the U.S. “will not increase its Bitcoin purchases,” instantly sparking investor panic and triggering a sharp sell-off. Moments later, when pressed by reporters, he added that “the plan has not been terminated,” which brought a slight recovery in market sentiment. Sometimes, you can’t help but marvel at the weight of the U.S. economy in global markets. But let’s stay on track — for those familiar with macro policy, this was far from a simple “slip of the tongue.” Rather, it felt like an accidental reveal of a policy thermometer, reflecting shifts in the U.S.’s strategic reserve asset allocation, Bitcoin’s evolving role in the national asset basket, and potential subtle adjustments in future monetary and fiscal policy. Core Event Breakdown: Three Key Remarks in Full View First wave: Gold firmly at the “store of value” center stage Bessent stated in a media interview that the U.S. is unlikely to reassess its gold reserve holdings, emphasizing that gold remains an important part of the country’s strategic reserves. He also mentioned that the value of Bitcoin reserves is roughly $15–20 billion, and that the government will stop selling its Bitcoin holdings. This statement effectively acted as a “bleeding stop” for Bitcoin — at least in the short term, there would be no further selling pressure. Second wave: Budget-neutral Bitcoin accumulation In another speech, Bessent added that the U.S. would incorporate seized Bitcoin into its strategic reserves and explore ways to acquire more Bitcoin on a “budget-neutral” basis. The key phrase here is “budget-neutral,” meaning the government will not use taxpayer funds directly to buy Bitcoin, but will look for ways to expand holdings without increasing the deficit — such as through law-enforcement seizures, asset swaps, or debt structure adjustments. Third wave: Media interpretation flip Later, in a Fox Business interview, Bessent once again mentioned “no direct purchases of additional Bitcoin,” and the market quickly took this as a sign of a pullback in the government’s Bitcoin strategy. But a few hours later, he clarified on social media that this did not mean the accumulation plan was ending — the Treasury would still explore budget-neutral paths for increasing holdings. His spokesperson further explained that it was merely an “off-hand, non-policy statement” and should not be over-interpreted by the market. Gold and Bitcoin: A Subtle Shift in Reserve Structure The most intriguing aspect of these remarks is how the U.S. is now making clear distinctions between gold and Bitcoin in its reserve strategy. Gold: The stable value anchor For nearly a century, U.S. gold reserves have held steady at around 8,000 tons, serving as a backbone of international credit. Bessent’s “no reassessment” comment is not a rejection of gold — it underscores its continued role as the defensive core of reserves, unlikely to see major changes. Bitcoin: A strategic experiment The U.S.’s current Bitcoin holdings (around $15–20 billion) mostly come from law-enforcement seizures, such as the Silk Road case, dark-web operations, and fraud cases. These sources mean acquisition costs are virtually zero, but quantities are limited. Budget-Neutral Accumulation: Technical Pathways and Practical Challenges “Budget-neutral” is the core keyword of Bessent’s speech, but also the biggest uncertainty. Possible approaches include: Law-enforcement seizures: Using agencies like the FBI and Department of Homeland Security to crack down on illegal crypto activity, seizing Bitcoin and transferring it directly into reserves. Asset swaps: Selling or exchanging non-core assets (e.g., certain Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac equity) for BTC. Mining partnerships: Collaborating with domestic Bitcoin mining firms via strategic agreements to obtain BTC revenue shares. De-leveraging portfolio adjustments: Reducing high-risk investments to make room for crypto assets. Challenges are equally clear: Limited supply: Seized BTC volumes are unpredictable and shrinking as a proportion of total supply. Market impact: If the U.S. is perceived as a steady BTC buyer, prices may rise ahead of time, increasing acquisition costs. Political resistance: Congress remains divided on the idea of national BTC holdings, with some lawmakers citing money-laundering and tax-evasion concerns. Since Trump’s executive order establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve, the U.S. has been trying to give BTC an official role — neither currency nor pure speculation, but a reserve asset with potential strategic value. The Subtext of Evolving Reserve Structure Gold is “stock safety,” Bitcoin is “incremental game.” The government will not recklessly use taxpayer funds to make massive BTC purchases, but will use seizures and asset swaps to gradually increase the Bitcoin share — potentially forming an early “gold + Bitcoin” dual-reserve structure. Market Reaction: Tension First, Then Recovery Bessent’s morning “will not purchase Bitcoin” line briefly drove BTC prices lower, amid fears that the strategic reserve plan was dead. But after the clarification, sentiment quickly recovered. Short-term traders: Exploited emotional swings for both long and short trades, with volumes spiking. Long-term investors: Focused more on the positive signals — “no more selling” and “budget-neutral accumulation” — viewing the overall stance as Bitcoin-friendly. Institutional players: Began reassessing BTC’s role as a macro hedge, especially given the U.S.’s parallel emphasis on both gold and Bitcoin. Deeper Implications for the Crypto Market Bessent’s statements may seem straightforward, but the signals behind them are worth deeper thought. 1. Policy risk is being repriced In the past, many investors viewed U.S. Bitcoin holdings as a “potential sell-off risk” — a market sentiment barometer. But Bessent’s remarks suggest the U.S. sees BTC more as a strategic reserve than a trading asset. This means that even if market volatility occurs, investors may focus less on short-term government selling and more on the evolution of long-term reserve policy. In other words, Bitcoin is being given a gold-like, sovereign value role, with its price reflecting macro policy expectations more than pure market speculation. 2. Bitcoin could enter more international political and economic negotiations When a country places BTC in its strategic reserves, its role extends beyond value storage — it could become a bargaining chip in cross-border settlements, trade deals, and even sanctions. In the future, trade agreements or global payment arrangements may use Bitcoin, much like gold, as a measure of value and settlement medium. This would mean BTC market behavior is shaped not only by supply and demand but also by geopolitics and international finance. 3. Bitcoin-gold correlation may strengthen If both assets become national reserves, sentiment spillovers will be sharper. Historically, gold tends to rally in times of global uncertainty. If BTC is integrated into reserve portfolios, we could see a “gold up → Bitcoin up” cross-asset reaction pattern. This could change asset allocation strategies and tighten the link between crypto and traditional markets. 4. Compliance in the crypto sector will accelerate If the U.S. keeps expanding BTC reserves, it will inevitably require higher transparency and on-chain traceability for related transactions. Exchanges, wallet providers, and other infrastructure operators will need to build compliance frameworks that meet national regulatory demands. Over time, this will raise market trust and pave the way for institutional capital, accelerating the industry’s shift from “wild exploration” to “mature normalization.” Conclusion Bessent’s “remark storm” was both a media misinterpretation and a rare policy signal. It shows Bitcoin’s evolution from a grassroots speculation asset toward a sovereign strategic reserve role. For the crypto market, this brings both opportunity and pressure — opportunity from official endorsement boosting confidence, and pressure from rising compliance and regulatory thresholds. In the future, Bitcoin may no longer be the “decentralized rebel,” but a new and unavoidable member of the global reserve system.
  3. #Trump #Fund #401(k) On August 7, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order that, while it may look dry on the surface, could reshape the crypto market landscape — allowing fixed-contribution retirement plans such as 401(k)s to invest in alternative assets, explicitly including cryptocurrencies for the first time. It’s important to note that the 401(k) is the backbone of retirement savings for America’s middle class. More than 90 million Americans participate, with total assets reaching $9 trillion. In the past, these funds were almost exclusively allocated to low-risk products like Treasuries, mutual funds, and blue-chip stocks. Now, for the first time, policy is opening the door to high-risk, high-reward alternative assets. The market quickly did the math: even if just 2% of 401(k) funds flowed into cryptocurrencies, that would represent roughly $170 billion in potential inflows — an amount equal to nearly two-thirds of the total current market cap of all spot crypto ETFs and publicly listed reserves combined. Our long-time readers may recall that in earlier articles we discussed the possibility of the $9 trillion in 401(k) retirement savings being allowed to invest in the crypto market. Back then it was just an expectation — now, with Trump’s August 7 executive order signed, that expectation is set to become reality. But hold on — this isn’t a story about billions pouring into the crypto space tomorrow morning. There’s still a series of real-world constraints, regulatory details, and market gamesmanship to navigate. Click to register SuperEx Click to download the SuperEx APP Click to enter SuperEx CMC Click to enter SuperEx DAO Academy — Space The U.S. Pension Dilemma: Why Take the Risk? The U.S. pension system is built on a “three-pillar” model: Federal mandatory pension (Social Security) — covers basic living needs, but not a comfortable retirement. Employer-sponsored supplemental pensions (401(k) and similar) — offered by employers, with voluntary employee contributions. Personal retirement savings — fully self-managed. In an ideal world, Social Security provides the baseline, 401(k) supplements it, and middle-class families can maintain a decent standard of living in retirement. Reality is much harsher. Inflation and surging healthcare costs have been eating away at purchasing power. Surveys show that now only about one-third of 401(k) participants believe they will meet their retirement goals — 10 percentage points lower than last year. Public pensions at the state and local levels are in even worse shape, with unfunded liabilities approaching $1.4 trillion. This means that sticking to the old low-risk portfolios could very well leave pensions underperforming inflation — let alone making up funding gaps. As a result, policymakers are now looking for higher-return solutions. Alternative Assets: Higher Risk, but Potentially Higher Returns Trump’s executive order defines “alternative assets” broadly: Private equity Real estate Infrastructure projects Commodities Digital assets (cryptocurrencies) Why bring these in? Two main reasons: Higher potential returns — especially in high-volatility markets like private equity and crypto. Low correlation — they don’t move in lockstep with traditional stocks and bonds, helping diversify risk. The trend in real life supports this shift: in 2001, U.S. public pensions allocated just 14% to alternative assets. By 2021, that figure was close to 40%. The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) even plans to add more than $30 billion to private market investments over the next few years. For cryptocurrencies, this is the first time they’ve had a chance to access such a massive, long-term capital pool. What Happens If 2% Flows into Crypto? Let’s look at the scale: Total 401(k) assets: $9 trillion 2% allocation to crypto: $170 billion Current total market cap of all spot crypto ETFs + public reserves: about $250 billion In other words, even a small test allocation could expand crypto’s “regulated capital pool” by two-thirds. This kind of shift has far more structural impact than a single bull-run price pump. However, this $170 billion won’t arrive overnight — the rollout may take six months to two years: The Department of Labor will issue detailed rules — clarifying allocation limits, product requirements, and risk disclosures. Fund companies will design products — most likely spot crypto ETFs or mixed funds. Employers will choose whether to add them to investment menus — not all companies will move right away. Employees will decide for themselves whether to invest. In the near term, the crypto market will mostly see a “sentiment rally”, while actual capital inflows will come only once the rules and products are in place. Spot Crypto ETFs Could Be the Biggest Winners From a pension fund’s perspective, safety, compliance, and liquidity are top priorities. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs meet these requirements: Regulated by the SEC Clear custody arrangements Ample liquidity Transparent pricing Compared to buying tokens directly, ETFs’ legal and audit frameworks make them much more likely to pass pension compliance reviews. It’s reasonable to expect that within a few years, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs could appear on U.S. 401(k) investment menus. International Perspective: From “Savings Pensions” to “Investment Pensions” Trump’s policy is not just financial deregulation — it’s a philosophical shift in how pensions are managed: The first pillar (government guarantees) remains unchanged. The second and third pillars (employer and personal pensions) take on more investment risk. Encourages individuals to actively manage retirement fund allocation. For countries whose pension systems rely heavily on government funding, this is a potentially disruptive model: allowing pensions to invest in high-risk, high-reward assets to chase higher long-term returns and ease future payment pressures. Europe, Japan, and South Korea’s pension managers may in the future look to the U.S. example and allocate part of their portfolios to alternative markets — including crypto assets. Medium- to Long-Term Impact on the Crypto Market Looking at it in three stages: Short term: Market sentiment is boosted, interest in ETFs and other regulated products rises, and prices may see speculative gains. Medium term: Rules are finalized, first products enter pension menus, capital starts flowing gradually. Long term: Pensions become steady institutional investors, pushing crypto asset valuations and trading structures toward maturity. From this perspective, Trump’s executive order is not a short-lived “policy firework,” but rather the beginning of building a long-term funding pipeline — and once it’s built, inflows will be continuous. Conclusion Trump’s order allowing 401(k) plans to invest in alternative assets is, in the U.S. domestic context, aimed at solving the pension underperformance problem. But for the crypto market, it’s a newly opened door — to a $9 trillion pool of capital. Even at just a 2% allocation, the scale is enough to reshape the market landscape. While implementation will take time and risks remain, the policy undeniably adds an element of institutional endorsement for cryptocurrencies. For crypto investors, this could be a structural opportunity worth tracking over the long term — the real capital pool is still filling up.
×
×
  • Create New...