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#BTC #ETH Over the past month, BTC has fallen all the way from its all-time high of $126,000 to below $90,000. A 25% pullback has thrown the market into panic, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping into single digits. Looking further back, we can see that over the past 41 days, more than $1.1 trillion in crypto market cap has evaporated, with average daily losses as high as $27 billion. The Futures market has been hit even harder. According to SuperEx statistics, last week (11.10–11.16) total liquidations across the market reached $3.772 billion, including $2.777 billion in long liquidations and $995 million in short liquidations, with longs taking the main damage. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $91,900, but it once broke below the $90,000 mark, hitting $89,925.99. ETH is hovering around the $3,000 level, at $3,093.9. No sector has been spared. Layer2 and DeFi are leading the declines, and fear has spread across the board. Many are asking: is this a deep correction within a bull market, or the official beginning of a bear market? Let’s Talk Data: How Serious Is This Pullback Really? 1. Longs Liquidated Across the Board, Market Loses Support Bitcoin longs alone saw $328 million in liquidations, causing the price to accelerate downward in succession. High-beta sectors like Layer2 and DeFi were hit even harder: 24h sector performance: Layer2: -7.9% DeFi: -6% PayFi: -4.11% Layer1: -4.17% NFT: -3.9% MEME: -3.51% AI: -3.66% 2. Short-Term Holders Almost Completely Wiped Out On-chain data shows that 2.8 million BTC held by STHs (short-term holders) are almost entirely in loss. This is the largest concentrated loss zone since the FTX collapse. With almost all short-term coins in the red, technical traders, stop-loss orders, and leveraged positions will continue to amplify the downside. 3. Long-Term Holders (LTHs) Are Selling, Whales Are Reducing Exposure From July to now, long-term holders have already sold more than 452,500 BTC. This is a very rare signal: continuous distribution by long-term holders → suggests that market confidence is weakening. 4. ETFs See Three Consecutive Weeks of Net Outflows, Institutions Cooling Off Last week, digital asset funds saw net outflows of $2 billion (the largest this year). BTC ETFs had net outflows of $1.11 billion last week. ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $728 million. Institutional demand cooling is the most obvious it has been in the past three months. 5. Whale Sell-Off + Retail Panic = Negative Feedback Loop The Fear & Greed Index has remained in the 10–14 “extreme fear” range, and retail has almost completely stopped buying. After BTC fell below $100,000, a large number of stop-loss orders were triggered, pushing the market even lower and forming a classic “spiraling negative feedback loop.” Right Now, There Are Three Main Views on This Continued Downtrend View A: The Market Has Not Turned Bearish, We’re in a Discount Phase (“Bull-Market Correction View”) Those who hold this view firmly believe that the fundamentals haven’t changed: institutional capital hasn’t disappeared, and central banks and Wall Street are steadily embracing crypto. Their representative points include: 1. Coinbase: No Deterioration in Fundamentals The head of institutional strategy at Coinbase stated: The current decline = mechanical liquidations, not a change in the underlying trend; The Czech National Bank buying Bitcoin is a “milestone event”; Citi and Morgan are starting to use stablecoins → regulated finance is fully engaging with the crypto industry. This is an extremely rare set of positive developments compared to previous cycles. 2. Bitwise CIO: BTC Fundamentals Are Very Strong He believes that 2026 will be a key year for new all-time highs. 3. CryptoQuant Data: Long-Term Holders Are Accumulating on a Large Scale Since October, LTHs have increased their holdings by 186,000 BTC. This is one of the largest accumulation waves within the cycle. Historically, whenever this appeared, prices would surge afterward. 4. Binance Australia: No Massive Exit, Retail Still in the Market Retail investors have not exited the market. Instead, they have: Rotated out of “high-risk coins” Rotated back into blue chips like BTC and ETH This is entirely different from the “mass exodus” seen in true bear markets. 5. Long-Term ETH Bulls: The Cycle Is Far from Its Top ETH is about to upgrade, stablecoin supply is growing, and asset tokenization is accelerating — all of which suggest that the next wave of momentum has yet to be released. The core belief of this camp: this is a discount phase within a bull market, not the start of a bear market. View B: The Bear Market Is Already Confirmed (“Bear Market Confirmation Camp”) This camp holds the opposite view. They believe that key technical indicators have been broken and liquidity conditions are continuously deteriorating — the bear market has already begun. Their arguments include: 1. BTC Has Broken Below the 50-Week Moving Average (50WMA) This is an extremely important signal: Bitcoin has never broken below the 50WMA during a bull market. Historically, it has only broken this line four times — all corresponding to bear market phases. Now BTC has once again fallen below this line. 2. Three Consecutive Weeks of ETF Net Outflows, Institutions Withdrawing This is a strong, unusual signal. The mainstream interpretation is that the institutional “reservoir” of demand is shrinking and the trend is weakening. 3. USDT Share Surging (Bearish Signal) A rising share of stablecoins → declining risk appetite → a typical bear-market characteristic. 4. Declining Leverage Demand, Perpetual Funding Rates Collapsing Monthly funding paid by longs has dropped from $338 million → $127 million, a 62% decline, indicating that long-side leverage appetite has vanished and market risk preference is falling. 5. Wyckoff Top Structure Appearing Some analysts argue that the current price action is highly similar to the classic “Wyckoff distribution” structure, and that BTC is tracing a pattern commonly seen near cycle tops. The core belief of this camp: the bear market has already started. This downturn is not short-lived; the market is entering a prolonged bottom-building phase. View 😄 The Bear Market Has Already Lasted Six Months and Is About to End (“Bear Exhaustion, Bull Emerging Camp”) This camp is more neutral. The CEO of Bitwise argues that the past six months have already been a bear market, and we’re now approaching its end. His thinking is: ETF AUM (assets under management) has barely declined, which shows that although retail is selling, institutions are largely holding steady. With central banks buying BTC, Wall Street embracing crypto, and stablecoin market caps expanding, the fundamentals have never been stronger. Therefore: this is not the beginning of a bear market, but rather the late stage of one. Where Does Bitcoin Go Next? Four Areas Worth Watching Closely 1. BTC May Still Have Room to Move Lower On-chain data shows that internal exchange liquidity has suddenly surged. This kind of pattern usually corresponds to “panic selling + liquidity stress.” Historically, this signal often appeared before pullbacks. Combined with low funding rates and negative basis, we may reasonably assume that BTC has likely not yet reached its bottom. 2. The Real Key Rebound Zone Lies Below $90,000 Several analysts believe that $89,000 (another 5% down) is the near-term rebound zone. The price has already corrected to around the $92,000 range, which offers some support for this view, but it has not firmly held this level. If this is just a short-term bounce, prices could easily revisit below $90,000. Further, if $89,000 is lost → BTC may fall back into the $74,000–$82,000 range to search for stronger support. And $80,000 has been recognized by many institutions as a key support level for this cycle. Some even argue that $80,000–$85,000 is a reasonable low under the Federal Reserve’s “liquidity tightening cycle.” 3. Key Variable: The Market Impact of 61,000 BTC from the Jian Zhiming Case The UK Treasury has made it clear that it will not include the 61,000 BTC from the Jian Zhiming case into national reserves, but will instead sell these BTC. This will create long-term supply pressure, but the real key is: How much will actually be sold? When will it be sold? Will the BTC be sold at a discount? This could trigger a second wave of impact on the market. 4. Institutions Are “Quietly Buying the Dip” While sentiment is extremely bearish, on-chain data shows “strong hands accumulating,” for example: On the ETH side: one whale has bought 13,117 ETH in the past 24 hours. ETH treasury company BitMine has accumulated 67,021 ETH in a week. On the BTC side: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) bought 8,178 BTC last week. El Salvador has bought 1,098 BTC in the past 7 days. These are very important signals: large players are accumulating in tranches, not exiting. Of course, this article is only an objective summary and analysis of the current state of the market and existing conditions. It does not make any predictions about the future market nor offer any investment advice. After all: “In a bull market, never call the top; In a bear market, never call the bottom; In a choppy market, don’t try to predict the future.” These three lines are the best advice for everyone. Final Thoughts Taking into account on-chain data, the macro environment, and institutional behavior, we can be fairly certain that: Short term: There is still downward pressure on the market; blindly buying the dip is not advisable. Mid term: Institutions are still accumulating, ETF AUM remains solid → the fundamentals have not turned bearish. Long term: The crypto industry continues to move steadily forward, with sovereign states and Wall Street accelerating their embrace of crypto assets. In other words: Prices are falling, but the industry is getting stronger. Fear is intensifying, but coins are changing hands. Retail is hesitating, but institutions are buying. The $80,000 area will likely become a key price zone, around which the next stage of market games will unfold. As for whether this is “bear market start” or “discount period begin” — the final answer can only be given by time.